So far, an early harvest yield trend has not yet been established.
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July meal experienced an impressive rally off of Thursday's low but hit significant resistance at 442.10 yesterday, and closed lower.
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Our review of the USDA’s Supply & Demand report released on April 11, 2023
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May soybeans remain in a consolidation just under the three highs from December, January, and February 13 right near 1545. Close in support is at 1511 1/2 and 1503 1/4, with 1554 3/4 and 1572 3/4 as next swing targets if the triple highs are taken out.
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The short term trend remains down for November soybeans with resistance at 1420, and support at 1388 3/4 and 1365.
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Global wheat stocks will decline to six year low. Rare cut to corn yield estimate from slow planting start. US soybean crush seen at record for 2022/23.
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July soybean support comes in at 16.67 3/4 and 16.47 1/4, with 17.04 1/2 as near term resistance. A close through resistance would leave 17.63 1/2 as next upside target.
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The report news was bearish across the board, with stocks up near the high end of trade expectations and planted area above the average estimate and at a record high.
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If the market extracts the war premium, the focus will return to normal fundamentals.
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Weekly USDA Export Sales Report
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Improving weather conditions for South America, a bearish technical set up from recent technical reversals, and the overbought condition of the market leaves it vulnerable to additional long liquidation selling.
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The report news was mostly neutral and with the bullish weather forecast, buyers could remain active.
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While the market is extremely overbought, the continued steep uptrend in open interest suggests that fund traders are still aggressive buyers.
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March soybeans closed sharply lower on the session led by weakness in the meal market. March corn closed moderately lower on the session as traders see outside market forces as bearish, and also see rain in the 8 to 14 day forecast models for southern Brazil and Argentina as a bearish force. March wheat managed to close higher on the session after lower trade early in the day. Talk of the oversold condition of the market and ideas that the winter wheat crops in the US and Russia are in poor condition added to the positive tone.
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While the January USDA reports usually have a big impact on the grain markets, South American weather could dominate the news this year.
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With the tightening world stocks situation and a significant weather threat for the next week, the market looks vulnerable to a further advance.
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US soybean crush for November was 190.50 million bushels for a daily crush pace was 6.35 million bushels.
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It should not take much in the way of a wetter forecast to spark significant long liquidation selling for meal and soybeans after the recent surge.
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The dry weather in South America will likely be the driving force for a continued advance over the near term but 7-days straight leaves the market in an overbought status.
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