Grain Recaps: 2022.01.10
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SOYBEANS
March soybeans closed sharply lower on the session led by weakness in the meal market. Talk of better rain in the longer-term forecast models plus weakness in outside market forces helped to pressure. AgRural indicated today that soybean harvest has begun in Parana and Mato Grosso with of 0.2% of the Brazil crop already harvested. Last year at this time the harvest had not started. Traders await the official Conab production estimates for release on Tuesday. Soybean export inspections for the week ending January 6 came in at 905,149 metric tonnes from trade expectations for 950,000 to 1.5 million tonnes. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 31,646,567 metric tonnes which is 23.1% below last year. This is 56.7% of the USDA's forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year versus the five year average of 53.4%.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
SOYBEANS (MAR) 01/11/2022: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. The close above the 9-day moving average is a positive short-term indicator for trend. The market's close below the 1st swing support number suggests a moderately negative setup for today. The next downside target is 1359. The next area of resistance is around 1400 and 1420 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 1369 1/2 and below there at 1359.
SOYMEAL (MAR) 01/11/2022: Stochastics turning bearish at overbought levels will tend to support lower prices if support levels are broken. A positive signal for trend short-term was given on a close over the 9-bar moving average. The market tilt is slightly negative with the close under the pivot. The next downside target is now at 405.7. The next area of resistance is around 423.0 and 432.4, while 1st support hits today at 409.6 and below there at 405.7.
SOYBEAN OIL (MAR) 01/11/2022: Studies are showing positive momentum but are now in overbought territory, so some caution is warranted. The market's short-term trend is positive on the close above the 9-day moving average. The downside closing price reversal on the daily chart is somewhat negative. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next upside target is 60.23. The next area of resistance is around 59.01 and 60.23, while 1st support hits today at 57.05 and below there at 56.30.
CORN
March corn closed moderately lower on the session as traders see outside market forces as bearish, and also see rain in the 8 to 14 day forecast models for southern Brazil and Argentina as a bearish force. Exporters announced the sale of 132,000 tons of US corn to Mexico. Corn export inspections for the week ending January 6 came in at 1,022,677 metric tonnes from trade expectations for 600,000 to 1.25 million tonnes. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 14,084,268 metric tonnes which is 15.0% below last year. This is 22.2% of the USDA's forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year versus the five year average of 26.2%.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
CORN (MAR) 01/11/2022: The daily stochastics have crossed over down which is a bearish indication. Declining momentum studies in the neutral zone will tend to reinforce lower price action. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. The market setup is somewhat negative with the close under the 1st swing support. The next downside objective is 589 1/4. The next area of resistance is around 605 1/2 and 612 1/2, while 1st support hits today at 594 and below there at 589 1/4.
WHEAT
March wheat managed to close higher on the session after lower trade early in the day. Talk of the oversold condition of the market and ideas that the winter wheat crops in the US and Russia are in poor condition added to the positive tone. Outside market forces were a bearish force but with fund traders short wheat, the move to the sidelines was a positive factor. Weakness in the other grains plus a higher US dollar were not enough to spark new selling. Wheat export inspections for the week ending January 6 came in at 233,159 metric tonnes from trade expectations for 175,000 to 400,000 tonnes. Cumulative inspections year-to-date are 12,431,651 metric tonnes which is 18.7% below last year. This is 54.4% of the USDA's forecast for the 2021-22 marketing year versus the five year average of 56.7%.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
WHEAT (MAR) 01/11/2022: Momentum studies are still bearish but are now at oversold levels and will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market's short-term trend is negative as the close remains below the 9-day moving average. With the close higher than the pivot swing number, the market is in a slightly bullish posture. The next downside objective is 740 1/2. The next area of resistance is around 771 3/4 and 779 1/4, while 1st support hits today at 752 1/4 and below there at 740 1/2.