We see the April through late May downtrend resuming after a slight post PPI report bounce. We see short selling pricing in September bonds at 127-09 and at 113-10.
Read MoreEven though there have been some positive US economic readings released over the last several weeks expectations for the US nonfarm payroll reading from last month on Friday call for a very small gain of only 181,000 jobs which would be the smallest gain since January 2020
Read MoreWhile we doubt the treasury trade will see a paradigm shift today (from a bullish focus of a Fed inspired recession from higher rates), a shift in focus is possible.
Read MoreWhile we will not rule out a spike down breakout in bonds and a temporary downside extension in treasury notes and bonds, we suggest aggressive traders begin to speculate on an interim but temporary low!
Read MoreYesterday prices were pressured by the announcement of a very large bond offering from Europe and today the treasury markets are under pressure from risk on in equities and signs of declining flight to quality concerns in other markets.
Read MoreNot surprisingly, treasury prices have “caught a bid” as the hype of a looming Russian invasion of the Ukraine has achieved a front and center status.
Read MoreThe trade is largely anticipating the US Federal Reserve to provide some hawkish headlines and therefore to provide treasuries with the lift today will likely require equal measures of concern for the pace of the economy and concerns of inflation.
Read MoreObviously, the treasury markets are short-term technically oversold and in the case of March bonds prices at least initially have rejected the key spike lows forged back in late November.
Read MoreUnless the US equity markets come under significant liquidation pressure today, we do not expect to see a significant pulse up move in US treasuries especially with the scheduled economic report slate empty.
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