The results of the USDA Supply/demand reports today should set the tone. Without a major surprise, we see a burdensome stocks situation and a record new crop ending stocks outlook as a key bearish force. China demand is on the rise but this should be more than offset by the record South America supply. July […]
Too much rain in the one week outlook might support corn but opens the door for increased soybean planted area and we expect another leg down before the market puts in a seasonal low. The focus of the trade yesterday was on corn and wheat with weather forecasts causing seeding issues. Weakness in soybeans could […]
There has been much discussion about how many more acres producers will plant to soybeans this year. Last year they planted 83.4 million acres, up from 82.7 million in 2015/16. As recently as 2013/14, that number was only 76.8 million. All it takes is a look at a chart of Chinese soybean imports to see […]
The official Brazil production forecast from Conab was released this morning and helped to push futures lower. Brazil soybean production was pegged at 105.558 million tonnes which is a new all-time high and up 10.6% from last year. The USDA raised their estimate from 102 to 104 mmt last month and traders will monitor today’s […]
The technical action is positive but the strength is coming from palm oil and soybean oil strength. Keep in mind; speculators hold a record high net long position in soybean oil. Chinese customs reports China’s October soybean imports totaled 5.21 million tonnes, down 5.8% on the year. January-October soybean imports were up 1.9% on the […]
Indonesia’s crude palm oil output may fall to 30.4 million tonnes from 32.5 million in 2015 because of lingering effects of El Nino according to the Indonesian Veg Oil Association. China booked three cargoes of canola yesterday amid surging domestic rapeseed oil prices according to China National Grain and Oils Info Center. Importers also bought […]
The market looks to turn lower over the near-term as yield estimates continue to come in sharply above average and consistently at record highs. It will take a major demand surge to offset this extra production but the USDA has already boosted demand figures in recent months and we see ending stocks up near 500 […]
The market spiked higher yesterday when the “algos” read the old crop carryout number but immediately sold off when the new crop yield was factored in. The USDA supply/demand update for soybeans was considered bearish against trade expectations. The September USDA report is now history and the one take away is that the technology/genetics of […]
The results of the USDA report today could spark some short-term volatility but with hot and dry weather in the forecast for next week, it may take a bearish surprise to expect a further long liquidation sell-off. For the report today, traders see old crop ending stocks falling to 352 million bushels (range 280-420 million) […]
The very strong demand from China and others has traders expecting tightening old crop and new crop ending stocks for the next supply/demand update, but the market faces the acreage and stocks reports on Thursday. If planted area is adjusted sharply higher, harsh growing weather will be necessary to tighten the supply outlook. The chart […]
