We recently captured the significant downturn in June Lean Hogs starting in early March through late April in two articles in our Weekly Market Letter. In the March 3rd (PDF) issue we published a bearish outlook on high pork production and in the April 21st (PDF) issue we turned bullish on export demand.
Tag Archives | hogs
Jump in Hog Weights and Weakness in Pork to Spark Back and Fill
Rationalizing the 442-point, 6.5% surge off of Friday’s lows may be difficult given the drop in pork cutout values to their lowest level since December 2nd and the jump in weekly average weights to a 15-month high. With the mild weather and cheap corn, it is difficult to determine if producers are current with marketings. […]
HOGS: With a Large Supply, Bulls Need Steady Flow of Strong Export News
A weaker tone to the cash market now with traders bracing for pork production to be up 6% from last year for the 2nd quarter has helped to pressure. It will be very important to see the export market remain very strong in the next few months and while there is a case for China […]
Traders See China Needing Extra Pork as Poultry Demand Dives
A push in pork cut-out values to the highest level since February 21st plus a sense that China poultry problems will shift China consumer demand to pork and force a spurt in China pork imports plus the abnormal basis are all seen as short-term positive force. April hogs closed up for the third session in […]
HOGS: Steep Uptrend Short-Term; Priced in Tightness; 8-14 Day Temps Normal
The short-term cash news remains positive and there is still no sign of a short-term peak. However, the upside looks limited to a weather bounce as the market faces a significant supply surplus ahead without significant help from rising exports. USDA pork cutout values, released after the close yesterday, came in at $75.89, up 46 […]
Strong Dollar Threatens Pork Exports and Hog Prices
Many commodity markets that traders have thought should be under pressure from the surging US dollar and large short-term supply issues have held up better than expected. With the importance of US pork exports to Mexico and the sharp drop in the Mexican peso, there is likely to be at least a short-term setback in […]
Hog Gap Downtrend Channel; Steep Basis and Oversold
December hogs gapped the key downtrend channel off of the September and October 13th high and this is a bullish technical development. A firm tone to pork prices, strong packer margins and strength in cattle helped to support. Fear that weekly slaughter levels will continue to come in 6-8% above a year ago has led […]
May Take Another Week to Better Guage Hog Slaughter Pace
The hog slaughter pace so far this week is still running 8.1% over last year, and uncertainty as to whether we continue slaughtering 8% above a year-ago levels next week or return to 2-4% above a year ago is a key concern. The slaughter this week is expected to stay high, as the market cleans […]
Drop-off in Hog Slaughter Should Support Product but Down 2.2%?
The slow recovery process in North Carolina was seen as a supportive factor yesterday and Smithfield Foods will not reopen operations at the largest slaughter plant in the US until Thursday. In theory, the slower slaughter pace should help support higher product prices. The USDA estimated hog slaughter came in at 395,000 head yesterday. This […]
Weekly Hog Slaughter Already Running Near Capacity; Weak
The slaughter pace of the last two weeks (up 8% and up 7.4%) has traders nervous that there are more hogs than the Hogs and Pigs report data suggests. In addition, Weekly slaughter totals were 2.436 million head and 2.466 million and this is getting dangerously close to packer capacity for a week which is […]