Given that the last significant inflation period was decades ago, it is not surprising that the marketplace has become convinced that a return to inflationary conditions is extremely unlikely. In the wake of the subprime debacle, many economists suggested that a return of inflation would be decades in the making. But looking at current events, […]
Archive | Commentary
Dave Hightower is Appearing in Chicago on June 13th
Dave Hightower will be speaking June 13th in Chicago at the GTR’s US Trade & Working Capital Conference. We have some special codes if you want to register. Standard Pass: Use the code HIGHTOWER15 for 15% off when ordering online. Corporate Rate Pass: This is only available to exporters, importers, manufactures, distributors, trader & producers of […]
10 Good Reasons to Be Long Corn
Download the Full Report (PDF) 1) The USDA Outlook Forum in February pegged corn planted area at 90 million acres, but most traders are looking for the Prospective Plantings report on March 29th show corn plantings coming in 500,000 to 2.5 million acres lower. 2) The USDA pegged Argentina’s 2017/18 production at 36 million tonnes […]
Soybean Outlook: Record Plantings Could Be a Selling Point
Download the Full Report (PDF) Once the focus of attention shifts away from crop losses in Argentina to the new crop situation in the US, the soybean market should be vulnerable to either a bear trend or at least a significant downside correction into the spring planting season. The USDA Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks […]
USDA Preview for September 12, 2017 Supply/Demand
SOYBEANS For the upcoming USDA reports, soybeans could be the market with the most volatility. The recent dry weather across a large portion of the Midwest has been accompanied by very mild temperatures. Traders have become familiar with the old mantra that corn yields are made in late July and soybean yields are made in […]
Dry Weather Expands Into the Eastern Belt
The 2017-18 U.N. FAO soybean production estimate was raised 5.2 million tonnes to a near record level of 347.6 million tonnes on upward revisions for Brazilian and U.S. output. The Argentine Foreign Minister reported that the EU approved new duties in accordance with the WTO ruling against the anti-dumping that should open up the biodiesel […]
Ethanol Production Numbers Should Continue to be Solid
Sinograin sold 641,628 tonnes out of 893,161 tonnes offered of 2014 corn at auction this morning. The 2017-18 global corn output could reach a record of 1.06 billion tonnes, up 5 million tonnes, according to the U.N. FAO report. They cite higher output in Latin America and former Soviet Union states. December corn traded to […]
Special Update: Gold, Silver, Dollar and Rates
GOLD/SILVER Obviously flight to quality and save haven are going to be featured this week in gold with other markets like silver, platinum, palladium, Bonds and the Yen figuring into the mix. Historically there might be fewer events with as much safe haven potential as the current North Korean situation. At least in the short […]
Corn End User Update: Prices Bottom When Perceived Supply Peaks
End users in corn should be on alert to take action soon. The market is probing for a short-term low, and with a minor shift in weather or psychology, a short-term low could quickly turn into a major, longer-term low. Th e corn market is currently absorbing expectations for a large harvest and massive ending […]
Corn: Drought Worsening in Northern Growing Regions
The corn market seems to be pricing in a yield of around 165 to 166 bushels per acre for this season, but it will not take much in the way of dry and hot weather to see yields move significantly lower. There is very little rain in the forecast for the Midwest for the next […]