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Author Archive | Ken Smithmier

soybeanfield-595

Soybean Volatility Opportunity

The soybean market is at a major inflection point for the 2013/14 crop season, and the Tuesday following the Labor Day weekend could confirm either that a major top was put in place with the sweeping reversal on August 27th or that the market is beginning another leg higher. Will we get 85% coverage of […]

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soybeanfield-595

Significant Risk of Soybean Yield Declines

The yield and production for the 2013/14 soybean crop remains up in the air, and the margin for error is small for the supply side while demand remains strong. Cumulative soybean sales stand at 50% of the USDA forecast, versus a 5-year average of 31.5% for this time of the year. If we consider dry […]

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Corn Cob

Big Picture Corn Market Favors the Bears

The big picture of the market continues to lean bearish with nothing for the bulls to gain momentum from in the short term. Bearish private crop forecasts and thoughts that the USDA will increase the US ending stocks estimate above 2 billion bushels no doubt favors the bears. Demand is beginning to build beneath the […]

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Wheat Storm

World Wheat Ending Stocks Crunch Ahead?

The world balance sheet for wheat is in a precarious position, as production appears to have topped out at 697.80 million tonnes for 2013/14. Keep in mind that the market is still looking for Indian wheat production to fall well under 90 million tonnes for 2013/14, well below the current USDA forecast of 92 million. […]

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pig-standing-595

Change in Season, Change in Trend

[box type=”download” icon=”none”]This article was originally posted in our June 14, 2013 Weekly Market Letter. Subscribe today and receive a free month or sign-up to receive Special Updates and we will send you a free issue![/box] Grain traders might be on the lookout for a change in trend at the summer solstice on June 21st. Traders […]

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USDA Preview & Outlook – June 2013

Corn Many traders believe there will be a downward revision of anywhere from 3 to 5 million in US corn 2013/14 planted acreage in next week’s USDA report, down from the May forecast of 97.3 million. A 3 million-acre reduction would be the largest revision for the June report in the last 20 years. Planted […]

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Corn Cob

Gloomy Outlook for Ethanol Stocks

Ethanol production reports continue to show substantial production progress week/week in addition to staggering drops in stocks.  Ethanol stocks for the week ending May 24th averaged 16.05 million barrels, the lowest since October 15th, 2012 when stocks were estimated at 16.03 million. Even more telling is that the decline  has been accelerating since January 1st […]

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pig-standing-595

Don’t Misinterpret the “Commodity Super Cycle”

There has been widespread talk that the so called, “Commodity Super Cycle” has come to a grinding halt. While the commodity complex may not be the darling of Wall Street at the moment (See CRB vs. S&P 500 Charts below) world agricultural commodity demand, particularly from China,  remains robust and better then ever. We believe […]

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soybeanfield-595

Soybeans: Big Downside Long Term. Wild Ride for Now

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial! The soybean market was the main event on Thursday with July soybeans trading up to their highest level since September of 2012 at 1546 […]

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