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BONDS: Look to Sell a Return to the Overnight Highs

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Global equity markets were initially under significant pressure but Asian stocks managed to recover and that might serve to tamp down initial safe haven interest in US Treasuries. In fact after a significant upside breakout in June bonds and the highest trade in many months the market fell back into this week’s consolidation zone. We have to think a portion of the bull camp simply decided to bank profits and move to the sidelines rather than risk a temporary setback off US nonfarm payrolls later today. With one private payroll measure coming in very strong earlier and both US initial and ongoing claims showing noted declines it is logical to upwardly revise expectations for the magnitude of the gain in the headline reading this morning. Countervailing the prospect of strong data from the jobs sector is evidence of an uptick in the layoff rate from the Challenger report and the prospect that weather in the reporting period might’ve had an adverse impact. All things considered we think it will be extremely difficult to come away from the numbers today with anything but a positive view toward the US economy. The North American session will start out with the highlight for global markets, the March employment situation reading. While non-farm payrolls are still expected to have a sizable decline in terms of the gain from February’s +235,000 reading, this week’s much higher than expected ADP jobs survey has “whisper” numbers coming in above the 200,000 level. March unemployment is forecast to hold steady at 4.7% while March average hourly earnings is expected to remain at February’s 0.2% rate. March Canadian unemployment is forecast to see an uptick to 6.7% along with a modest gain in their net employment. February US wholesale inventories are expected to hold steady at January’s 0.4% reading. The March Canadian Ivey PMI is forecast to see a moderate uptick from February’s 55.0 reading. US February consumer credit will be released during afternoon US trading hours. New York Fed President Dudley will speak during early afternoon US trading hours.

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