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Severe Panic and Margin Selling Points to Even Lower Treasury Prices

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Chart-595With Global equity markets mostly higher again overnight 3rd quarter Japanese GDP slightly stronger than expected and October Chinese industrial production coming in roughly in-line with the September readings a risk-on trade is generally in place to start the new trading week and that in turn has forced a significantly lower low move in US Treasuries. In addition to spiking US rates the rest of the world is seeing the rising tide lift other debt yields and that gives credence to the shift away from the era of extremely low rates for an extended period of time. Some might suggest that the rise in rates is doing the job of the Fed which in turn will mean that a December rate hike is a foregone conclusion. In the short term the market will not have scheduled data to exaggerate or countervail the sharp range down extension which has put Bond prices down to the lowest level since the first week of 2016 and it has also put some Treasury yields up to the highest level since December 2015! An issue that might impact Treasuries direction ahead is the action in equities as new higher highs for the move and specifically any new all-time highs in individual issues could turn up the liquidation pressure on Treasuries even further. However, the market will have a number of Fed speeches today and the jump in yields might be addressed by some Fed members. However, from a technical perspective Treasury bonds enter the session this morning into a potentially supportive consolidation low zone around the 152-26 to 151-00 level. The North American calendar will have no major data points, which may put added focus on comments by Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Richmond Fed President Lacker and SF Fed President Williams during afternoon US trading hours.

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