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Choppy Bond Action Today but Data Might Favor the Bears Today

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Chart-595Treasuries remain mired in a recent range bound by 162-29 and 161-21 despite an active flow of political and economic news. Favorable Chinese economic data overnight was probably countervailed somewhat by Euro zone data but in the end the international economic condition would seem to favor Treasury bears. However, the market will see a flurry of US economic reports today, the beginning of the FOMC meeting and an ongoing avalanche of US political wrangling and that might cloud the waters for both the bulls and the bears. We continue to think that Treasuries are facing condition where the trade thinks there will be a December rate hike and the question is whether or not the Fed statement on Wednesday will provide a direct hint of action. In the near term we have to think that the markets will give some attention to data but that large moves might not be seen until after the Fed statement on Wednesday afternoon. However the North American economic calendar will start today with 2 private retail chain store sales readings early on and those readings will be followed by private manufacturing PMI numbers from both the US and Canada, followed by the ISM manufacturing index which is forecast to show a modest increase from September’s 51.5 reading. September construction spending is expected to improve from August’s -0.7% reading and climb into positive territory.

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