Drops in grain prices were caused by the pervasive negative outside market action. While the more favorable forecast weighs on prices many feel the damage has already been done and this downward pressure may be hard to sustain. Gold may have hit a significant peak. This week’s COT report will likely show a new record long position and we have added $40/oz since that report date.
Tag Archives: Weather
Expect Some Serious Volatility Over Many Markets Today
Could be a historic day for physical and financial commodity markets. Washington still has not reached a deal and we are now in the 11th hour. If a deal is not reached as the trading day comes to an end, the markets may have to send a message to Washington that something must be done or serious macroeconomic consequences may result.
Grain markets are seeing supportive news in the form of continued exports of ethanol to Brazil, record high pork cut-out values, and continued concern on the damaged caused by the record day and night-time temps this season.
Equities Likely to Apply More Pressure on Washington; Gold Hyper-Sensitive to Debt Debate
Most commodity markets seem to be locked in a trading range so far today. Yesterday’s economic numbers where disappointing. The debt debate continues to weigh on the equity markets and will likely start applying pressure on Washington if they continue to push towards the August 2nd deadline. Metals markets will have difficulty extending in the face of a deal being reached, even if it’s a poor one. Rumors of China buying US pork are being caused by record US pork cut-out values.
Markets Waiting on Washington; US Crops Getting Some Rain
Little better attitude towards physical commodities this morning. Dollar expected to remain weak. Plenty of US data today, but will be overshadowed by the happenings in Washington. US crops are getting mixed weather with rains up north but continued dryness in the southerns areas.
Lack of US Debt Deal Weighs; Better US Weather but Corn Damage Done?
Starting the week out on a generally negative tone with most markets under pressure. The exceptions are gold and silver which are getting a flight-to-quality lift. US Weather is improving for crops, but several private agencies suspect the damage is already done to the corn crop.
Lingering US Slowing Fears Joined by Rumors of China Inflation
Generally bearish tone to commodities to start the week. Greek vote on new austerity programs this week are expected to bring more protests. Generally good weather is for the US crop. Hogs & Pigs report out of the USDA last Friday showed record pigs per litter which points to maximum efficiency and a higher future supply.
US Senate Votes Down Ethanol Subsidy; Lowest Crude Trade Since January
Physical commodity markets seem to be ending the week with a negative bias. Greek debt concerns persist. Grain markets are seeing some better weather, but lots of uncertainty as to the uneven start to planting. Crude traded the lowest since January. That technical violation, combined with global demand slowing concerns, should the path of least resistance down.
Fears of a Broad-Based Commodity Liquidation
Turmoil continues in Greece with riots and leadership turnover. Speculative interest seems to be leaving the grain markets with the weather threat reduced and crop conditions improving. A slight downward track in the energy complex with talk of releasing SPR stocks onto the market.
Weaker To Start; Brent – WTI Spread hits $20; World Economy Faster Than US
Negative to start the week. Suggestions over the weekend that US may need another “Stimulus Package” to avoid a Japan-style stagflation decade. The Brent Cude – WTI Crude spread hit $20 again, which is an indication that US crude oil is cheaper than the rest of the world. This is also an indicator of weaker US demand for Crude. Weather continues to be a concern for US crops.
Softer Footing to Start the Week; Planting Accelerating in US
Commodity markets are staring the week on a softer footing. There is a negative shadow over most markets carried over from last week’s disappointing employment report in conjunction with previous disappointing numbers.
