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Commodity Low Seen Before the End of May!

by Dave Hightower on May 14, 2012

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As of this writing the markets were fully entrenched in a risk-off mentality that was the result of weak US data, renewed Euro zone turmoil and perhaps a measure of political uncertainty in China. While the recent change in leadership in Greece and France cast doubt on past austerity pacts and the uncertainty has injured global confidence, it isn’t a given that the global recovery attempt will be completely foiled by this bump in the road. However, the Euro zone situation will probably remain the dominating theme for now, and it could take some time before the newly installed leaders realize they will have very little capacity to dictate terms to the rest of the world.

Greece’s ability to dictate terms to the EU is effectively zero, and that could be quickly demonstrated by the Germans, who might be able to exert even more influence over the EU in the wake of the temporary power vacuum in France. However, the change in Greek and French leadership will probably have some impact on current affairs, as politicians everywhere are taking note of the disdain for aggressive austerity. As the ultimate goal of politicians is to stay in office, the recent turn of events might result in a reduction of austerity policies. It could also increase the prospect of additional easing from key central banks.

In the US, where austerity is often touted for members of the Euro zone, it might not take much of a slide back towards recession and/or renewed Euro zone debt concerns to resurrect efforts at yet another US stimulus package, especially with the election looming ahead. It is also possible that significant turmoil from the Euro zone situation could bring the US Fed off the bench sooner than previously expected. The Fed made it clear last year that it considered events in the Euro to be very important to the US economy.

China is perhaps content and even happy with the recent decline in commodity prices, as it is providing an opportunity to restock. We suspect that the PBOC is taking note of the recent reduction in inflation (June crude oil down $16/barrel from the March high), which could give it a freer hand to act. Unlike the US, China can insulate its economy from inflation pressures through an aggressive rebuilding of commodity supplies.

We suspect that copper, platinum, cattle and corn have already seen 90% of their anticipated liquidation off of macroeconomic events and that the ECB and the Fed will step up and soothe sentiment when the June S&P contract reaches down to the 1325 level. The economic horizon is dark right now, but sharply lower energy prices for the early portion of the summer, fresh easing from one or more central banks, another round of refinancing in the US housing sector and increased auto production by Ford and Toyota could quickly improve fortunes. It is also possible that further deterioration in the US economy and adverse polling data might force the US Administration to employ some classic capitalistic measures.

In looking at the enclosed chart of the spec net long positioning of non-financial markets and adjusting those figures for the additional price slide in May, commodities in general are getting much closer to a “liquidated” condition. On the monthly CCI chart, a normal retracement from the 2001 low and the 2011 high points to a potential bottom around 500. We remain bearish in the short term but realize a bottoming potential is coming most likely as a result of US Fed dialogue!

Wheat: With Good Weather, Can Not Rule Out Another Leg Down Into Harvest

by Terry Roggensack on May 4, 2012

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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The market seems to be consolidating this weeks losses with a quiet inside trading day yesterday and quiet trade overnight. Outside market forces could come into play this morning if employment news is leaning one way or another. Open interest is higher this week as fund traders seem to be adding on to their hefty net short position. July wheat gave back the early gains yesterday to close near unchanged. July KC wheat held on to gain a few cents on the day and Minneapolis July wheat fell to new lows for the move and to the lowest level since November of 2010. On top of reports from Kansas of good yield potential, traders also view the outlook for more rain in the plains in the next week and a lack of cold weather as a bearish influence. There are still concerns with questionable crop conditions in the Black Sea region but European crops appear to have improved in the past few weeks. The lack of a major weather issue and the outlook for a bumper crop in the US has helped to pressure. Weekly export sales came in at 256,700 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 454,800 for the next marketing year for a total of 711,500 which was about as expected. As of April 26th, cumulative wheat sales stand at 100.2% of the USDA forecast for 2011/2012 (current) marketing year versus a 5 year average of 96.4%. The USDA may raise exports and feeding usage for the reports on Thursday and slightly tighten the old crop ending stocks. However, traders see the winter wheat crop production report as key and the fast start to the spring wheat crop as another negative force. European milling wheat futures pushed to a two-week low pressured by talk of improving weather in France.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The Wheat Quality tour of Kansas had participants expecting a yield near 49 bu/acre and Kansas production near 404 million bushels as compared with 35 and 276.5 million last year. With good weather, we can not rule out another leg down into harvest.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: July KC wheat short-term selling resistance is at the 642 with 619 3/4 as next downside target. July wheat selling resistance is at 628 1/2 with 591 1/2 as next downside target.

Corn: If Weather Stays Good, Can Not Rule Out Another Swing Down

by Terry Roggensack on May 4, 2012

The weather remains a bearish force and has helped to pressure December corn this week. There seems to be plenty of rain in the Midwest forecast for the next ten days and planting progress could slow but soil conditions have improved significantly ahead of the key growing season. A long liquidation selling trend has been noticeable and China buying has occasionally supported strong gains for the old crop May and July contracts and the cash market remains very strong. May corn is near the high end of the range for the calendar year while December corn is near the low end. Since April 13th, open interest is down a whopping 146,000 contracts. May corn closed 8 1/2 cents higher yesterday, July up 3 and December down just 1 1/2 cents with a strong recovery late in the day. The old crop tightness, a very strong cash market and ideas that the USDA will need to raise exports and tighten old crop ending stocks further in next week’s Supply/demand update has helped to support the nearby contracts. Omaha corn is trading 24 cents premium to the July contract as compared with -20 cents as the 3-year average. An excellent weather outlook plus the early plantings has traders inching up their yield projections for the new crop season. Net weekly export sales came in at 1.332 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 2.14 million for the next marketing year for a total of 3.472 million tonnes. Sales of 321,000 metric tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Traders indicated that the combined sales for the week were at the highest weekly total since 1991. The lack of deliveries and news that Argentina will not export corn to China until more of the GMO details are worked out helped to support the nearby contracts. South Korea is tendering to buy 55,000 tonnes of corn.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: Corn is expensive to South American corn, Black Sea corn and wheat which could help ease the export demand but the USDA may still be in a position to raise the corn export forecast by 50-75 million bushels for the report next week and tighten old crop ending stocks. Traders are using a yield estimate of 164-166 for the report next week which leaves ending stocks near 1.8 billion bushels from 801 million this year and this has kept selling pressure on December.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: December resistance is at 533 3/4, and if the weather stays this good, we can not rule out another swing down to 511 before the market puts in a spring low.

Soybeans: Short-term Weather Outlook Remains Bearish

by Terry Roggensack on May 4, 2012

The old crop soybeans recovered some of the steep two-day losses overnight with the market selling off as much as 47 cents after a reversal top. The trade continues to view the market as overbought and traders believe that much of the China buying spree has been priced. July soybeans closed moderately lower on the session yesterday while November closed near unchanged. Long liquidation selling from fund traders was active for much of the session with plenty of talk that fund traders own a record high net long position in both soybeans and meal by a significant margin. This, along with the key reversal has attracted profit-taking ahead of next week’s Supply/demand update. December meal recovered from lower on the session to close near unchanged as well while December oil pushed sharply lower on the day to experience the lowest close since March 29th. Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 1.732 million tonnes. Traders expected near 1.3-1.5 million. Old crop sales of 60,000 tonnes are needed each week to reach the USDA forecast. Meal sales were 151,700 and oil sales came in at 14,900 metric tonnes. Ideas that China could soon shift to using more government-owned reserves helped to pressure the market. Private exporters reported the sale of 232,000 tonnes of US soybeans to China for the 2012/13 season. South Korea is tendering to buy 55,000 tonnes of soybean meal for arrival in September. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut their soybean production forecast to just 41 million tonnes, down 2 million from previous estimate and down from 45 million as the April USDA forecast. Traders see a sharp reduction from the USDA next Thursday and the first look at the 2012/13 season. US ending stocks estimates are expected to be historically tight as the lower South American crops push demand to the US all the way out to early next year.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The reversal this week may attract some short-term profit-taking but the tightening stocks outlook remains a key supportive force. New buyers might wait to see how far November pulls back into early next week before buying as the short-term weather outlook remains bearish.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: Buying support for November soybeans comes in at 1359 1/2 and 1347 3/4 with 1421 3/4 and 1507 as next targets. December oil may show some solid support near 54.90 with 56.23 as first good resistance. December meal buying support is at the 376.60-372.90 zone with 400.90 as next target.

Commodity Outlook – 2012.04.30

by Dave Hightower on April 30, 2012

At times the markets attempted to rekindle anxiety toward the Euro zone debt situation, but the trade wasn’t predisposed to fully embrace that threat. The US Fed and the PBOC haven’t exactly been falling all over themselves with promises of additional easing. From China’s perspective, they are probably content to see a wide range of physical commodity prices fall back. It’s clear that they are taking advantage of recent weakness in the grain markets to rebuild their buffer stocks. On the other hand, residual uncertainty off the US political condition and the prospect of a shift in leadership in France has added to the “hunker down” mentality that was ushered into the market shortly after the March US unemployment report disappointed economists and investors. While recent US corporate earnings have come in generally positive, the US equity market hasn’t been in a position to benefit as much in recent quarters, perhaps because the outlook for the economy is mired in a blanket of uncertainty. The recent weakness in stocks and the corrective action in a host of physical commodity markets appear to be tightly correlated to the softening macroeconomic vibe. Therefore, better growth or definitive action from key central banks might be needed before a bottom in physical markets can be expected.

Continuous Commodity Index - Monthly - Cash

The chart of the combined non-commercial and nonreportable position in non-financial markets indicates that the net spec long position has been moderately rebuilt since the late 2011 washout. Therefore it is possible that even more long liquidation will be needed to balance the markets and even suggest that prices are cheap again! While the $10 slide in nearby crude oil prices from the March high probably relieves some pressure on the economy, the 30-cent per gallon decline in gasoline prices is likely an even bigger boost. However, unless energy prices fall further or are prompted to go lower by a politically-motivated SPR release, one probably can’t expect the US economic pace to be markedly improved without additional monetary easing. As can be seen in a monthly Continuous Commodity Index chart, commodity prices in general have fallen back near the December 2011 lows, a period when the world was expecting a breakdown of the Euro zone and thought that the US economy was going to be pulled back into a recession because of it. As of this writing, it did not appear as if the situation was nearly as ominous as it was in December, and while the US economy was showing signs of softening, it could easily be improved by just a couple of dovish words from the Fed. It is also possible that supportive action from the PBOC would be enough to shift global economic sentiment back onto a positive plane. Still, it appears that the equity market’s job over the short term might be to track lower until there is more assistance from the Fed.

Special Report: Soybeans – 04/04/2012

by Terry Roggensack on April 5, 2012

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While fund traders are already holding a record high net long position in soybeans, the market is unlikely to experience a significant setback in the bull trend until traders see either a major jump in planted area from the March USDA Prospective Plantings report or a prices reach a high enough level to significantly reduce demand. In a normal year, soybean demand would be have shifted to South America at this point, but the lower production out of that region this year will keep demand focused on the US. Traders expect an extremely tight world supply until the South American harvest next February. The real question for the market in the meantime will be how high new crop soybean prices will need to move in order to significantly reduce demand from key end users like China.

World Soybean Production Change

The market may also see a need to move higher over the near term in a last ditch effort to attract increased US planted area to soybeans. The Prospective Plantings estimate came in at just 73.9 million acres, which was well below trade expectations for 75.4 million. Plantings were estimated to be down 550,000 from last year in Iowa and down 200,000 from last year in Indiana, Minnesota and Nebraska. In addition to the low acreage estimate, the USDA pegged March 1st soybean stocks at 1.372 billion bushels, down about 20 million bushels from trade expectations.

The fast pace of export shipments to China has more and more traders believing that China’s import demand for the 2011/12 season will be closer to 57-58 million tonnes than the USDA estimate of 55 million. For 2010/11 China imported 52.3 million tonnes. For 2012/13, traders are looking for at least 60 million tonnes. Some traders are also expecting China’s soybean production to come in below 13 million tonnes this coming season, down from 13.5 million last year, as some acres are shifting to corn.

Argentina’s Rosario Grain Exchange recently pegged the Argentine 2011/12 soybean crop at just 43.1 million tonnes, down from their previous estimate of 44.5 million tonnes and down from the March USDA supply/demand report estimate of 46.5 million tonnes. As a result, traders are looking for a drop to 43-45 million tonnes for the April USDA report. Traders are anticipating Brazil’s production to come in at 65-66 million tonnes, down from the March USDA estimate of 68.5 million. If these expectations come true, it would shave an additional 5-6 million tonnes off of global production for the 2011/12 season and would result in the largest year-on-year decline on record.

Supply/Demand Scenarios for 2012/13

The supply/demand tables show the need for near-perfect weather, high yield and additional planted acres. The soybean market needs to pull 1-3 million acres away from intended cotton, corn and double-cropped wheat in order to avoid extreme tightness for the new crop season. For example, many traders are looking for demand to come in around 3.4 billion bushels for the coming season with beginning stocks around 245 million bushels. With this level of demand, even a jump of 2 million acres from the prospective palntings estimate accompanied by a trendline yield of 43.4 bushels per acre would bring ending stocks to a mere 109 million bushels. This would push the stocks/usage ratio to a record-low 3.2%.

If a soybean rally can attract an additional 1.5 million acres and the yield comes in at a simple 3-year average of 43 bushels per acre, ending stocks would come in at just 58 million bushels, and the stocks/usage ratio would fall to a record low 1.7%.

The point of the exercise is to show the need for demandprice rationing, even if the market attracts more acres and experiences good enough weather for high yields. The real question here is not “if” the market can rally but how high soybean prices need to go to slow the surging global demand.

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USDA Grains Stocks and Planting Intentions Review – 2012/03

by Terry Roggensack on March 30, 2012

CORN

The USDA report this morning was considered mostly supportive against trade expectations with the corn market called 15-20 cents higher for old crop and 5-7 higher for the December contract. The USDA pegged corn planted acreage at 95.864 million acres compared with trade expectations at 94.7 million. This is the highest planted acreage since 1937. March 1st stocks were pegged at 6.009 billion bushels as compared with trade expectations at 6.15 billion.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Corn Stocks - March 1st The report is mixed as planted acres came in higher than expected but stocks were lower. The stocks report showed that there are about 140 million fewer bushels of corn than expected, which is a reality. The extra planted acres could result in about 185 million bushels in extra production for the coming year. May corn looks set for a quick recovery, with resistance at 639 1/2 and 647 3/4. Look for a test of 675 3/4 over the near-term.

SOYBEANS

Soybean Stocks - March 1st

The USDA reports were considered very bullish for soybeans with the market called 15-20 cents higher on the opening. Planted acreage for soybeans came in at just 73.902 million acres, which was well below trade expectations for 75.4 million. The USDA pegged March 1st stocks at 1.372 billion bushels compared with trade expectations at 1.39 billion.

PRICE OUTLOOK: With the surge in expected demand for US soybeans due to crop losses in South America, traders believed that planted area would need to increase to 76 or 77 million just to absorb the extra demand. The report news is very bullish for November soybeans and suggests significant rationing of demand even if there is a high yield. A resumption of the uptrend leaves 1355 as the next upside target for November soybeans, and the market may need to push above 1400 into the planting season to attract more acres.

WHEAT

The USDA reports this morning were considered bullish, with the wheat market called 10-20 cents higher. The USDA pegged total wheat planted acreage for 2012 at 55.908 million acres compared with trade expectations for 57.4 million. Spring wheat planted area was just 11.976 million acres compared with trade expectations at 13.3 million. North Dakota corn plantings were up 1.17 million acres from last year and this caused planted area to wheat to come in below expectations. March 1st wheat stocks came in at 1.201 billion bushels compared with trade expectations near 1.223 billion.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The report news was bullish for corn and soybeans as well, and this should help support a solid recovery in July wheat over the near term. It is likely that funds currently hold a record or near record net short in wheat. Look for initial resistance for July wheat at 646 3/4 and 653 1/4 and an eventual recovery to 674.

Wheat: New Crop Outlook Looks Burdensome; Upside Limited Without Help

by Terry Roggensack on March 21, 2012

NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Weakness in the other grains, good weather for US crops and ample world supply remain as negative forces in wheat. However, funds are thought to be holding a hefty net short position in wheat and any shifts in the production outlook could keep the market vulnerable to volatile trade. Very active growing weather in the US this early in the season has traders nervous over a possible shift back to normal or even below normal temperatures into early April. On the weekly updates, Kansas crops were rated 54% good to excellent from 53% last week and 27% last year. Oklahoma was rated 70% good to excellent from 66% last week. Texas was 34% from 33% last week. With a good rain event this week, crop conditions are expected to improve again next week. The active growing season so early in the year means that crops will also mature faster than normal and this will leave the winter wheat crop especially vulnerable to freeze damage “if” temperatures turn cold in early to mid April. The two-week outlook still calls for warm and wet weather which is ideal for growing conditions and should help prepare areas in the Northern plains for planting. However, there is a hint of more normal temperatures near the end of the two week forecast and traders will be watching for any sign of colder than normal weather into the central plains. Algeria bought 300,000 tonnes of optional origin milling wheat overnight and traders believe at least 200,000 is from South America. United Arab Emirates bought 30,000 tonnes of milling wheat and 20,000 tonnes of corn from Argentina. May wheat closed sharply lower on the session yesterday as fund traders were noted as active sellers. Talk of improving crop conditions in the US and talk that some rains helped relieve dryness in parts of France helped to pressure. A more bearish tone to outside market forces sparked increased selling across the grain floor. A stronger US dollar and economic concerns for China plus weakness in metal and energy markets all combined to spark the selling. India will review grain exports on March 26th. May wheat is already down as much as 36 1/2 cents from Monday’s highs. May Minneapolis wheat pushed to the lowest level since February 28th yesterday.

TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The outlook into the end of the month for dryness in western Europe, a lack of rain for Ukraine and a shift to more normal temps in the US are all potentially supportive weather forces. For now, this is too far out in the forecast models but another sharp down day for wheat could spark some increase in buying activity as funds hold a hefty net short. The new crop outlook is showing potentially burdensome supply and the upside seems limited without significant help from the other grains so the short-term outlook is still weak. July wheat selling resistance is at 660 1/4 with 638 and 631 1/4 as next support.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: May wheat resistance is at 645 1/2 with 624 1/4 as next target.

Soybeans: Bullish Setup for New Crop Beans

by Terry Roggensack on March 12, 2012

In the previous issue of this newsletter, we covered the new crop corn situation closely but just brushed over soybeans. In this letter, we will take a closer look at the new crop soybean setup. The soybean complex is in a steep uptrend, with old crop meal closing higher in 9 of the last 10 trading sessions as of this writing. With a sharp drop in production from South America and a jump in demand from China, the soybean market had good reason to rally. The market may also be making one last move to help entice producers to shift some of the intended acreage from corn and wheat back to soybeans. With the South American harvest just picking up steam, some traders expect to see more normal supply levels over the near term. New crop soybeans seem to have more upside potential from here, as the South American supply will tighten considerably in the November to February period for the coming season and there is significant uncertainty on the US supply outlook for the new crop season.

This writing occurred ahead of the March USDA supply/demand update, which is expected to show a drop in both US and world ending stocks for the 2011/12 season. Traders look for ending stocks to come in around 260 million bushels, down from 275 million estimated in February. World ending stocks are expected to drop to 57.75 million tonnes from 60.28 million last month as South American production is adjusted lower. However, some traders are looking for a 4-6 million tonne drop in production for Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay combined, so it may take a drop in demand to pull world ending stocks down by only 3 million tonnes. If we assume that world production will be adjusted lower by 4.5 million tonnes, it would leave world production at 247 million tonnes. This would be down a whopping 17.2 million tonnes from last year and would be the largest annual decline on record. This downward shift in production helps to push some demand into the Northern Hemisphere’s new crop season and increases the need for a high yields.

The USDA Outlook Forum Conference in late February forecasted US plantings at 75 million acres this year, unchanged from last year and down from 77.4 million two years ago. The Conference also assumed a trendline yield of 43.9 bushels/acre, up from 41.5 million last year. Usage is expected to increase 3.335 billion bushels, which would leave ending stocks at just 205 million bushels and the stocks/usage ratio at 6.1% versus 9.1% in 2011/12 and 6.6% in 2010/11. Even if yield reaches a new record high 44.5 bushels per acre, ending stocks would fall to 243 million from 275 million this year. If the yield were up 2 bushels/acre from last year and the same as two years ago, ending stocks would slip to just 149 million bushels and stocks/usage to 4.4%, the lowest on record.

This study shows the need for a high yield for the coming year, and it also helps to explain the surge higher in soybean values over the past month. As a result of the potential tightness, the market is likely to be extremely sensitive to weather developments into the spring. While the market is technically overbought after the recent run higher, the supply/demand outlook is positive. The soybean market may attract more attention from fund traders this year, as it has the story and the trend to draw in new buyers. The Commitments of Traders reports as of February 28th showed that trend following fund traders (non-commercials less index funds) held a net long position of 97,139 contracts. This was up 19,456 contracts from the previous week. The buying trend is a short-term positive force. The record high net long position was 160,198 contracts, so there appears to be significant room for more spec buying to come into the market.

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Corn: Tight Ending-Stocks and Possible Big Acreage Increase

by Terry Roggensack on February 27, 2012

The extremely tight old crop ending stocks outlook continues to provide underlying support to the corn market, and the outlook for a surge in production and ending stocks for the 2012/13 season continues to keep a lid on advances. News from the baseline USDA data released a few weeks ago was viewed as a mixed bag. China import demand is expected to grow significantly in the next ten years. However, the baseline data also shows that US corn planted area for the 2012/13 season would be at the highest level since 1944, with a record production this season. It also showed ending stocks more than doubling from 801 million bushels for the 2011/12 season. Yield was pegged at 164 bushels per acre for the 2012/13 season, and trendline yield advances to 182 by 2021/22.

The USDA Outlook Forum supply/demand conference (February 23-24), which is the first real look at the new crop season, is to be released after this writing. If the USDA raises their planted acreage estimate 94.5 million acres (from the 94 million in the baseline projections worked up in November) and also leave trendline yield at 164 bushels per acre, production could hit a record high 14.202 billion bushels. Even if one assumes an increase in usage of 500 million bushels for the new crop season, ending stocks would jump to 1.813 billion bushels. A 166 yield would push ending stocks towards 2 billion bushels. If we assume that usage will increase by 500 million for the season, it will take a yield down at 154.6 bushels per acre to end up with fewer than 1 billion bushels. A yield which is 9.4 bushels per acre under trend has occurred in just 4 years of the past 21, and to expect below-trend yield for a third year in a row is a bit of a stretch.

Weather is still a factor in South America, as Brazil’s second crop season is just beginning, with the crop about 30% planted. Weather is already a concern in the Midwest with dry conditions reported in the western Corn Belt and parts of the northern plains. If the early spring weather is dry, bulls will point to yield concerns in the US and dry soil conditions in the grain belt in China, but bears will likely win out as corn plantings will jump to a fast start. This may increase the odds of planted area coming in even higher than expected.

The Commitments of Traders reports as of February 14th showed non-commercial traders were net long 228,687 contracts, a decrease of 4,626 contracts for the week. The selling trend is seen as a negative force. Non-commercial and nonreportable traders combined held a net long position of 95,430 contracts, down 11,820 for the week. Open interest is up 103,456 contracts over the past month, but the market has mostly traded in a choppy and sideways pattern since January 24th. The chart pattern for new crop corn is negative with a series of lower highs since the August 31 contract highs on November 9, January 3 and February 6. Considering the hefty net long position from the fund traders, higher open interest and the weak pattern, don’t rule out a continued downtrend into the planting season.

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