The Hightower Report

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has seen a sizable pullback this morning, but remains close to the upper end of this recent recovery rally. Unless there is a larger change with sentiment over the next few hours, the Dollar could finish with a reasonably strong gain for the second consecutive week. Sluggish US data remains a concern, but there have been several economic numbers during the past few days that have provided some cause for optimism. The focus of the market remains on overseas risk concerns, so any positive news out of the Euro zone could put additional heavy pressure on the Dollar relatively quickly. Today’s US numbers could add further volatility into the mix if they surprise the market. The Dollar may find support near the 75.70 level, but may finish out the week holding relatively close to the highs for this recent rally.

EURO: The Sept Euro was able to lift well clear of the recent lows, although prices have a long way to go in order to recover losses sustained over the past few sessions. A cabinet reshuffle by the Greek government, including the idea of having an opposition leader as Finance Minister, has been positively received by the market but may only last until the passage of austerity measures needed to receive aid from the IMF and EU. Elevated risk concerns are still going to be a major problem for the Sept Euro to contend with during the next few weeks, and any further debt problems for the Euro zone could send prices back down towards the lows for the move. The Sept Euro may test resistance around the 142.40 level later on this morning, but needs to receive some positive news on Euro zone debt in order to make any substantial recovery from these levels.

YEN: The September Yen continues to make a late-week recovery, but prices have only risen back towards the middle of this week’s trading range. While today’s Dollar pullback is likely to give the September Yen some additional strength this morning, the upside may be limited as prices approach the critical 125.00 level where possible central bank intervention starts to become an issue. The September Yen may find resistance around the 124.75 level, and may not have enough upward momentum to retest last week’s highs.

SWISS: The Sept Swiss has recovered from this week’s lows, but remains well below record high levels posted earlier in the month. Recent safe-haven support may have been eroded by today’s events in the Euro zone, but the Sept Swiss is likely to stay fairly well supported until the crisis has reached some sort of conclusion. The Sept Swiss may find resistance near the 118.50 level but will likely need fresh risk concerns in order to trade up towards the recent highs.

POUND: The Sept Pound was able to put together a modest recovery this morning, but will likely finish a choppy and volatile trading week close to the recent lows. Weak UK economic data has taken a near-term Bank of England rate hike off the table for now, but an end-of-week Dollar sell off could help the Sept Pound to recover a portion of recent losses. The Sept Pound may find resistance near the 161.80 level, but needs a vast change in sentiment in order to climb back towards this week’s highs.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The Sept Canadian has climbed back towards the middle of a huge weekly trading range, but gains have been limited by sluggish market action in crude oil and gold this morning. Comparatively strong Canadian economic data has taken a back seat to generally weak energy and precious metals prices which in turn have been providing the Sept Canadian with it recent direction. The Sept Canadian may find resistance around the 102.00 area later on this morning, but it needs a broad-based commodity rally in order to move well beyond these levels.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar appears to be concluding this week’s trading on the defensive, but may find some support if today’s US data comes in better than the market expects. The Sept Euro has been able to post a strong recovery this morning, but today’s rebound could quickly turn around if there is further negative sovereign debt news out of the Euro zone.

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: While a number of news services continue to tout the presence of residual Euro zone debt concerns, the Dollar isn’t apparently benefiting from that angle in the early US Wednesday trade. In fact, talk that the US was poised to strike a deal to extend its debt ceiling, in exchange for up to $1 Trillion in spending cuts, only seemed to give the Dollar marginal support. Perhaps the trade thinks the US economy will suffer in the event that austerity measures are implemented, or perhaps the Dollar trade is simply anticipating a soft US durable goods report later this morning. Nonetheless, the June Dollar is showing some slightly positive early action, but so far the charts show an inside day with a pattern of lower highs still developing for this week. It is possible that the Dollar is being partially undermined by talk of a French head of the IMF. Initial up trend channel support in the June Dollar Index today is seen at 76.10 but the US durable goods report might temporarily send the Dollar back below 76.00.

EURO: While a decline in German consumer sentiment readings overnight could have weighed on the Euro, the Euro has generally held together inside the prior two day’s ranges. However, talk of restructuring Greece’s debt package seems to have applied some fresh pressure to European equity markets and that in turn has pushed the Euro downward on its charts. The Euro also saw fresh new lows versus the Swiss overnight and that would seem to leave the Euro vulnerable to more losses ahead. In fact, we think that traders should consider implementing fresh shorts in the Euro this morning, especially if the June Euro manages a bounce off the US durable goods readings. If the outlook for Germany continues to deteriorate that could put the Euro under significant duress and that in turn could mean a decline in the June Euro to the lowest levels since March 17th.

YEN: The Yen seems to have entrenched into a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. BOJ comments overnight seemed to suggest that the recovery from the natural disasters were likely to take time, but that the Japanese fiscal house needed to be reformed even before the quake hit. In fact, the BOJ suggested that the need for further credit easing was on the rise, instead of on the decline and that would seem to suggest that the June Yen is poised for the lowest trade since April 28th. Sell rallies in the June Yen back up to 122.07.

SWISS: The Swiss is in the throes of another flight to quality rise. In addition to slack German consumer sentiment readings, the trade also expects to see rather soft US durable goods news this morning and that would seem to leave the Euro and the Dollar off balance because of classic fundamental news flow. With a restructuring of Greek debt also possible ahead, the June Swiss might be poised for a rise to the highest levels since May 10th. Support in the June Swiss rises to 114.05, with little in the way of resistance seen until 114.84.

POUND: Apparently sluggish UK growth figures haven’t undermined the Pound this morning, as the currency made fresh new highs for the week. In other words, the Pound is seen as the lesser of two evils, when compared to the Euro. Down trend channel resistance today was initially violated at 1.6234 and a close above 1.6225 could cause the currency trade to begin speculating on a more significant recovery in the Pound. Holding back the Pound are concerns that extremely weak UK house hold spending figures at the start of the New Year could present a problem to the currency at higher exchange rate levels later in the year.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: With a fresh downside breakout in the June Canadian putting the currency at the lowest level since March 28th, it is possible that the Canadian is poised to see some stop loss selling by the bull camp. Apparently a more positive view on commodities from Goldman was of little lasting benefit to the Canadian, which looks to maintain a pattern of lower highs and lower lows directly ahead. Next significant downside support in the June Canadian Dollar is seen at 101.58.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Swiss might become the primary leadership market, especially in the face of slowing evidence from a number of key global economies.

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar has traded within a relatively tight overnight range today, but has been able to consolidate this week’s recovery from the lowest price levels since late 2009. While there have been few recent items of US economic data for the market to digest, a focus on overseas issues may have been to the Dollar’s benefit. In addition, the Dollar has received further support from the pullback in crude oil prices. While the prospect of Euro zone rate hikes during the final stages of the Fed’s quantitative easing measures has kept the Dollar on the defensive during the past few weeks, this recovery could find further strength if US economic numbers later this week maintain their recent positive tone. The Dollar may find resistance near the 77.25 level this morning, but would need sentiment to shift negative once again in order to retest the lows from earlier in the week.

EURO: The June Euro has been unable to shake off this week’s decline, and posted a new low for this pullback during overnight trading. Risk concerns for the sovereign debt of EU peripheral nations has flared up again, with Portugal’s longer-term yields reaching record high levels in front of their 2-year auction this morning. Elevated inflation levels in Germany and France may be emphasizing the case for an ECB rate hike next month, but there are going to be serious issues with several Euro zone nations who would be hurt by those higher benchmark rates. The March Euro may retest support near the 138.40 level again this morning, but may need further evidence of economic strength from core EU nations to make a return towards this week’s highs.

YEN: The June Yen remains on the defensive this morning, unable to find much lasting benefit from decent Japanese Machinery Orders data during the overnight session. A pullback in energy prices has helped to erode some of the June Yen’s recent safe-haven strength, and put the market’s focus back on the nearly flat Japanese yield curve. The June Yen could find support near last week’s low of 120.45 later on today, but a further slide towards last month’s lows for 2011 could occur if sentiment continues to deteriorate.

SWISS: The June Swiss was able to recover from an extension of yesterday’s sell off, as a strong Swiss CPI number this morning underscored comparatively good Swiss economic conditions. Lukewarm energy prices may be eroding recent safe-haven support for the June Swiss, and could prove difficult to overcome for
any sort of return towards this month’s record highs. The June Swiss may find resistance near the 107.75 area today, but may require a fresh risk flare-up in order to find new high ground once again.

POUND: The June Pound has been able to lift away from this week’s lows, supported by a UK trade deficit number that was smaller than expected. Further positive data may be required to provoke the Bank of England into raising UK interest rates, although today’s data was one of the last major economic numbers before tomorrow morning’s meeting. The June Pound could find resistance again around the 162.00 level, but any larger move to the upside may have to wait until the Bank of England meeting is out of the way.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The June Canadian has surged above the recent trading range, and is closing in on a new 3-year high this morning. Generally strong Canadian economic data has been doing the heavy lifting, as this up move has occurred while energy prices have been pulling back. The June Canadian should find resistance at the previous high of 103.03, but any sort of recovery in energy prices today, would provide more than enough support to trigger an upside breakout to new high ground.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar has held onto a recovery from this week’s lows, but a lack of US economic data this morning could limit the ability to extend this move further to the upside. The June Canadian is likely to move up to new high ground if energy or precious metal prices can show further strength during today’s session.

Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!

DOLLAR: The Dollar was able to recover from a new 31/2 month low during overnight trading, and has been able to post moderate gains this morning. While overseas events have determined the Dollar’s direction over the past week, there may be some hope that recent positive US economic data may finally be providing the Dollar with some strength. However, prices remain near the lower end of this recent selloff as events in North Africa and the Middle East have not provided the Dollar with much safe-haven support. Today’s US GDP number and a private survey of US Consumer Sentiment will be closely watched by the market, as strong data might provide some sense that the current program of quantitative easing by the Fed may conclude by the end of June. The Dollar might find resistance near the 77.40 level, but may have some difficulty climbing further beyond that area this late in the week.

EURO: The March Euro has fallen back from overnight highs, but has held onto most of this week’s large gains so far this morning. Recent comments by ECB officials concerning the likelihood of Euro zone rate hikes have provided much the March Euro’s recent strength, but today’s election in Ireland may bring sovereign debt problems back into the market’s focus. While the March Euro has been able to close in on a new high for 2011 this week, an overnight pullback may have been enough to prevent a further extension of this rally to finish off the week. The March Euro could retest resistance at the 138.25 level later this morning, but would need to see some bad US data this morning to have any chance of posting fresh highs for this move.

YEN: The March Yen remains below the highs of this week’s steep rally this morning, but ongoing flight to quality support has allowed little opportunity for a late-week pullback. A negative Japanese CPI number overnight was of little surprise to the market given the ongoing deflationary environment in Japan, but conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East are likely to offset a sluggish Japanese economy with providing the March Yen with near-term support. The March Yen may find support near the 121.75 level later on this morning, but is likely to finish out the week relatively close to the highs of the current rally.

SWISS: The March Swiss has finally begun to give up ground, and appears likely to end a streak of 8 consecutive sessions with a gain for the day. A stronger than expected private survey of Swiss Leading Indicators has provided additional strength for the March Swiss, but a 5 cent rally during the past two weeks is likely to encourage some profit-taking during the session. The March Swiss may find some support near the 107.50 level this morning, but the continuing conflict in Libya will keep prices near the upper end of this recent rally.

POUND: The March Pound continues to slide lower this morning, and has fallen back to the lowest price levels since the middle of last week. A weak UK GDP number this morning has added to pressure on the March Pound, as elevated inflation levels may not be enough to have the Bank of England hike UK interest rates in the near future. The March Pound may find support near the 160.50 level this morning, but would need a vast change in sentiment in order to return towards this week’s highs for the move.

CANADIAN DOLLAR: The March Canadian has quietly posted new highs for the move, and is reaching the highest price levels since the spring of 2008. Huge gains in the energy markets have provided a large measure of carryover support, but decent Canadian economic numbers have helped to underpin these recent gains. The March Canadian could find resistance near the 101.95 level, but may finish out this week with an upside breakout up into new high ground.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The Dollar has been able to bounce off of new lows for this sell-off, but will need some positive US data this morning in order to hold onto this recovery. The March Canadian may be close to an upside breakout if energy prices can maintain their current strength.