Meetings of the G20, IMF and World Bank gave a lift to equities overnight, but quickly eroded. Most physical commodities are weak and we would expect that to continue until some positive and convincing news on how to handle the EU and US situations surfaces.
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Positive Tone Despite Negatives; Optimism from “Operation Twist?”
Bit more optimistic view this morning in spite of a Italian debt downgrade by S&P and disappointing economic news out of Germany overnight. The dollar is down which is giving some physical commodities a lift. Perhaps there is some expectation of additional quantitative easing from the FOMC meeting tomorrow.
Bit of a Negative Bias in Equities as We Close the Week
Little bit of a setback in equities with the positive buzz out of the Euro-Zone wearing off. Consumer Sentiment numbers will be important today. Gold and Silver are on the ropes as of late but have been rejecting the early morning moves so far. Grains are recovering a bit with an overly negative bias over the past week. Reports of derivative trading causing the recent slide in grains has surfaced.
EU Financial Problems Continue; Commodity Demand Concerns
Little divergent action through out the commodity markets today. Today’s scheduled data was a bit of a “mixed bag.” Mortgage survey showed a jump which is considered a “one off” with the recent drop in interest rates. Retail sales where weaker than expected. EU and US political and financial environments continue to weigh on the financial markets.
Generally Weak Tone To Start the Week
More news about possible Greek default. USDA Supply & Demand Report this morning will set the tone for the rest of the week.
Gold Under Pressure; Crude Showing Strength; Corn & Soybean Conditions Worsen
Mixed bag this morning. Gold under pressure and Crude and Copper showing some strength. With stocks up and US Dollar weaker give the impression that sentiment on the economy is becoming more stable. Corn and Soybean crop conditions continue to worsen which should provide some under-pin to the market.
FOMC Minutes Show Fed May Provide Further Easing
Private job estimates over night come in a little under expectations and modestly below last month’s Payroll numbers. Rumors that the Fed will be there to provide easing if necessary, but there does seem to be some divided opinions in the FOMC. However, there are members who are willing to do some more innovative things to help the economy. US grain crops are still a concern with both corn and soybean yields coming more in question. Gold and Silver have priced in some significant uncertainty, but we do not think the news will be there to support.
Nothing Decisive from Jackson Hole; Positive Economic Tone To Start
Energy markets had a volatile period last week, but looking for a corrective period unless the economic outlook improves. Grains remain strong as demand concerns are overshadowed by new private survey showing corn crop below USDA estimates.
GDP Revised Lower; Surprise Shanghai Copper Stocks Decline
Markets will be looking at Bernanke’s speech this morning.
