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April crude oil prices traded higher throughout the overnight and early morning hours and have closed in on their January 12th high of $103.40. The crude oil market benefits from a positive outside market tone that has lifted global equity markets higher and a slightly negative track for the US dollar. It seems a good portion of that positive lift in the energy markets came in the wake of yesterday’s US economic data that showed initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level in four years. Risk-taking sentiment gained in added lift on reports that Greece was closer to a second bailout package that could come as early as Monday. The crude oil market also seems to be drafting from gains in Brent crude oil, which rallied in the wake of forecasts for reduced North Sea output in March. April crude oil continues to reap a fear-factor stemming from supply disruption concerns surrounding Iran and the potential block of export flows into a number of European countries. In the meantime, it appears that most of the upside has been driven by optimism that the Greek debt situation could be near a resolution and improving US economic data. April crude oil prices are up nearly 8% from the February low into this morning’s high. Additionally, there is stiff resistance on the weekly crude oil charts at $103.74. The bull camp gets the early edge this morning, with a chance of revisiting its January high of $104.03. Swing low support stands at $101.18.
GASOLINE: March RBOB prices traded slightly lower during the early morning hours, perhaps as it takes a pause after yesterday’s surge into new highs for the rally. While the Midwest gasoline market remains under pressure from abundant near-term supply, a rally in Brent crude oil above $120 a barrel is pulling feedstock prices higher for East and Gulf Coast refiners, thus pulling up RBOB prices. The short term uptrend pattern for March remains intact, with swing low support below at $2.9867. Given the gains in crude oil and positive risk-sentiment during the early morning hours, it might take more bullish data to continue to power prices higher.
HEATING OIL: March heating oil prices traded lower throughout the early morning hours but remained mostly in the upper portion of yesterday’s range. March heating oil prices continue to bounce around in a bullish wedge pattern, which offers a level of resistance above at $3.2224. March heating oil prices do not seem to have embraced the recent positive shift in US economic data and outside market optimism toward Greece. While the chart pattern projects higher prices, the key will be confirmation of the move above $3.2224. March heating oil has a shelf of support below at the $3.1760 to $3.1710 zone.
TODAY’S ENERGY MARKET GUIDANCE: The crude oil complex had a mixed trade during the early morning hours, with the product markets failing to participate in a positive risk-on vibe in outside markets. Meanwhile, crude oil closes in on its January high of $104.00. It is possible that the crude oil complex has rallied too far too fast in the short term in pricing in supply disruption concerns and an improving economic backdrop. This leaves the complex vulnerable to disappointment on weaker US economic data this morning or changes regarding the Greek bailout arrangement.
Energy: Complex Vulnerable to Disappointing US Data and Change in Greek Situation
by Research on February 17, 2012
Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
April crude oil prices traded higher throughout the overnight and early morning hours and have closed in on their January 12th high of $103.40. The crude oil market benefits from a positive outside market tone that has lifted global equity markets higher and a slightly negative track for the US dollar. It seems a good portion of that positive lift in the energy markets came in the wake of yesterday’s US economic data that showed initial jobless claims falling to their lowest level in four years. Risk-taking sentiment gained in added lift on reports that Greece was closer to a second bailout package that could come as early as Monday. The crude oil market also seems to be drafting from gains in Brent crude oil, which rallied in the wake of forecasts for reduced North Sea output in March. April crude oil continues to reap a fear-factor stemming from supply disruption concerns surrounding Iran and the potential block of export flows into a number of European countries. In the meantime, it appears that most of the upside has been driven by optimism that the Greek debt situation could be near a resolution and improving US economic data. April crude oil prices are up nearly 8% from the February low into this morning’s high. Additionally, there is stiff resistance on the weekly crude oil charts at $103.74. The bull camp gets the early edge this morning, with a chance of revisiting its January high of $104.03. Swing low support stands at $101.18.
GASOLINE: March RBOB prices traded slightly lower during the early morning hours, perhaps as it takes a pause after yesterday’s surge into new highs for the rally. While the Midwest gasoline market remains under pressure from abundant near-term supply, a rally in Brent crude oil above $120 a barrel is pulling feedstock prices higher for East and Gulf Coast refiners, thus pulling up RBOB prices. The short term uptrend pattern for March remains intact, with swing low support below at $2.9867. Given the gains in crude oil and positive risk-sentiment during the early morning hours, it might take more bullish data to continue to power prices higher.
HEATING OIL: March heating oil prices traded lower throughout the early morning hours but remained mostly in the upper portion of yesterday’s range. March heating oil prices continue to bounce around in a bullish wedge pattern, which offers a level of resistance above at $3.2224. March heating oil prices do not seem to have embraced the recent positive shift in US economic data and outside market optimism toward Greece. While the chart pattern projects higher prices, the key will be confirmation of the move above $3.2224. March heating oil has a shelf of support below at the $3.1760 to $3.1710 zone.
TODAY’S ENERGY MARKET GUIDANCE: The crude oil complex had a mixed trade during the early morning hours, with the product markets failing to participate in a positive risk-on vibe in outside markets. Meanwhile, crude oil closes in on its January high of $104.00. It is possible that the crude oil complex has rallied too far too fast in the short term in pricing in supply disruption concerns and an improving economic backdrop. This leaves the complex vulnerable to disappointment on weaker US economic data this morning or changes regarding the Greek bailout arrangement.
Tags: Crude, Energy, Gasoline, Heating Oil, Natural Gas, RBOB
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