Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
The Treasury market enters the new trading week sitting modestly above last week’s spike down washout lows, with September bonds also resting roughly 4 points below the June highs! Apparently Treasuries saw a measure of support from weekend concerns toward Chinese bank exposure to local government debt, which were in turn generated by a Moody’s report. The market also saw some support from residual Euro zone debt concerns and perhaps from some weak Euro zone May retail sales readings, which came in much weaker than year ago levels. In fact, the retail sales decline in the Euro zone this morning was a noted drop and that has sparked concerns of even more slowing evidence ahead from the Euro zone.
Restraining the upward tilt in Treasuries off the news of slowing overnight, is the fact that the US Treasury has weighed in with predictions that Congress has roughly 1 month left to come to a compromise on the deficit/debt ceiling issue. The somewhat weak Euro zone macro economic outlook was balanced by a minor up tick in UK June Services PMI readings and perhaps because of generally positive action in global equity markets.
The Treasury market will take some guidance from a US Factory orders report due out later this morning, with expectations calling for a slight improvement. With the market fresh off some pressure late last week, from an up tick in an ISM manufacturing report, the bear camp probably feels like they have the edge from the macro economic front into the scheduled report flow later today. The focus of the trade will probably quickly shift to the week ending US monthly payroll report, as the flow of scheduled data early in the week, doesn’t look to offer up much of a distraction to the key monthly payroll report.
Early estimates for the non farm payroll report, call for only a gain of 100,000 jobs and that might be a low enough number to provide some underpin to bonds and notes prices throughout the week. At least in the short term, the ebb and flow of concerns toward the debt ceiling might remain in the background, as the market instead looks to verify last week’s shift toward a better economic outlook.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 28th for U.S. Treasury Bonds showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 53,618 contracts, an increase of 1,933 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 38,424 contracts, an increase of 15,206 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 15,194 contracts, a decrease of 13,273 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 38,424 contracts. This represents an increase of 15,206 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 28th for US Treasury 10 Year Notes showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 11,794 contracts, an increase of 58,691 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. The Commercial traders were net long 71,485 contracts, an increase of 65,051 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 59,691 contracts, an increase of 6,360 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 71,485 contracts. This represents an increase of 65,051 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
Interest Rates: Looking to Verify Better Outlook; Debt Ceiling Debate Remains
by Dave Hightower on July 5, 2011
Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
The Treasury market enters the new trading week sitting modestly above last week’s spike down washout lows, with September bonds also resting roughly 4 points below the June highs! Apparently Treasuries saw a measure of support from weekend concerns toward Chinese bank exposure to local government debt, which were in turn generated by a Moody’s report. The market also saw some support from residual Euro zone debt concerns and perhaps from some weak Euro zone May retail sales readings, which came in much weaker than year ago levels. In fact, the retail sales decline in the Euro zone this morning was a noted drop and that has sparked concerns of even more slowing evidence ahead from the Euro zone.
Restraining the upward tilt in Treasuries off the news of slowing overnight, is the fact that the US Treasury has weighed in with predictions that Congress has roughly 1 month left to come to a compromise on the deficit/debt ceiling issue. The somewhat weak Euro zone macro economic outlook was balanced by a minor up tick in UK June Services PMI readings and perhaps because of generally positive action in global equity markets.
The Treasury market will take some guidance from a US Factory orders report due out later this morning, with expectations calling for a slight improvement. With the market fresh off some pressure late last week, from an up tick in an ISM manufacturing report, the bear camp probably feels like they have the edge from the macro economic front into the scheduled report flow later today. The focus of the trade will probably quickly shift to the week ending US monthly payroll report, as the flow of scheduled data early in the week, doesn’t look to offer up much of a distraction to the key monthly payroll report.
Early estimates for the non farm payroll report, call for only a gain of 100,000 jobs and that might be a low enough number to provide some underpin to bonds and notes prices throughout the week. At least in the short term, the ebb and flow of concerns toward the debt ceiling might remain in the background, as the market instead looks to verify last week’s shift toward a better economic outlook.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 28th for U.S. Treasury Bonds showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 53,618 contracts, an increase of 1,933 contracts. The Commercial traders were net long 38,424 contracts, an increase of 15,206 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 15,194 contracts, a decrease of 13,273 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 38,424 contracts. This represents an increase of 15,206 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of June 28th for US Treasury 10 Year Notes showed Non-Commercial traders were net short 11,794 contracts, an increase of 58,691 contracts which represents a change from a net long to net short position. The Commercial traders were net long 71,485 contracts, an increase of 65,051 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net short 59,691 contracts, an increase of 6,360 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net short position of 71,485 contracts. This represents an increase of 65,051 contracts in the net short position held by these traders.
Tags: Bonds, Financials, Interest Rates, Notes
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