Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: While equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally weaker during the overnight session, early indications are that US equity markets would open with moderate gains this morning. The US Dollar is weaker against most of the major currencies this morning, although posting gains versus the Yen and Swiss. News reports indicate that a potential Greece aid package may ask private creditors to swap their current holdings for longer maturities. The IMF has urged China to let the value of the Yuan rise further in order to help rebalance the Chinese economy. Japanese GDP during the first quarter was down 3.5% year-on-year, weaker than market expectations. The UK Trade deficit during April was 7.39 billion Pounds, a smaller deficit than projected. The Bank of England will announce their monetary policy decision at 6:00 AM, while the European Central Bank will announce their monetary policy decision at 6:45 AM. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include Weekly Jobless Claims and the April International Trade Balance at 7:30 AM, and April Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM. In addition, Fed Vice Chairman Yellen and Fed Regional Presidents Plosser and Pianalto will give speeches during the session. The final leg of the Treasury’s monthly refunding, the 30-year note auction, will have results announced at 12:00 PM.
GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The gold market starts the Thursday US trading session off on a slightly weaker footing despite somewhat supportive currency market action. Apparently residual concern of slowing in the US economy has lost its capacity to foster safe haven buying of gold, or perhaps the magnitude of the slowing fears in the US aren’t higher enough to prompt fresh buying action. Some players think the impending ECB rate decision has spooked some longs to the sidelines, while others think that the ECB won’t be able to justify a hike in this meeting, especially given the damage to sentiment caused by the most recent round of Greek debt troubles. Some traders think that gold is deriving some support from the tensions in the most recent OPEC meeting, where the cartel was clearly divided between raising production and holding production steady. Those OPEC members against raising production levels suggested that they were concerned about overheating in the Chinese economy, especially if energy prices were reduced in the wake of a higher output move. In fact, the main dispute inside OPEC was on the outlook for the global economy and that could indirectly provide some support to gold prices ahead. In looking ahead, the gold market will see a couple US Fed speeches today, with the Fed’s Plosser already weighing in with a partially dovish statement overnight. With the Fed Beige book, US data and recent Fed statements mostly leaning toward more slowing in the US, it is possible that some gold bulls are becoming hopeful of a delay in the end of QE2 or some other gold supportive stance from the US Fed. Comex Gold Stocks were unchanged at 11.214 million ounces.
SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Somewhat surprisingly the silver market is showing some minor early gains today and that could be a sign that silver is starting to sense a softening of the US Fed tone. Clearly silver would be undermined in the event the ECB raises interest rates this morning but that isn’t a widely anticipated development. Seeing silver rally and gold decline today could also suggest that macro economic uncertainty isn’t high enough to support gold and that type of action could also suggest that silver is indeed hopeful of a delay in the end of US QE2. Some traders are suggesting that silver is coiling for some type of key decision ahead and therefore the last month’s high and low prices could be seen as critical technical points directly ahead. Comex Silver Stocks were 101.015 million ounces down 7,683 ounces. Silver stocks have declined 12 of the last 20 days.
PLATINUM: The platinum market was showing some minor weakness in the early Thursday US trade, despite an initial attempt to rally in the silver market. However, weakness in copper and energy prices and a lack of direction in world equity markets seems to have left the bear camp with a slight edge. Platinum and other physical commodity markets are probably fretting the ECB rate decision this morning, even though US central bank comments recently have leaned more toward an extension of easing. While platinum recently saw favorable comments toward Ford motor company shares, the tone of the Fed Beige book yesterday would seem to be somewhat restraining of platinum and other physical commodity prices. Platinum has also shown some coiling action for the month of June and that could mean that the trade is waiting for a clearer track on the US economy before committing to a fresh trend. Up trend channel support in the July platinum market is seen at $1,818.80 today and that level rises to $1,825.20 on Friday.
Metals: Under the Influence of Economic Uncertainty
by Dave Hightower on June 9, 2011
Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: While equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally weaker during the overnight session, early indications are that US equity markets would open with moderate gains this morning. The US Dollar is weaker against most of the major currencies this morning, although posting gains versus the Yen and Swiss. News reports indicate that a potential Greece aid package may ask private creditors to swap their current holdings for longer maturities. The IMF has urged China to let the value of the Yuan rise further in order to help rebalance the Chinese economy. Japanese GDP during the first quarter was down 3.5% year-on-year, weaker than market expectations. The UK Trade deficit during April was 7.39 billion Pounds, a smaller deficit than projected. The Bank of England will announce their monetary policy decision at 6:00 AM, while the European Central Bank will announce their monetary policy decision at 6:45 AM. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include Weekly Jobless Claims and the April International Trade Balance at 7:30 AM, and April Wholesale Trade at 9:00 AM. In addition, Fed Vice Chairman Yellen and Fed Regional Presidents Plosser and Pianalto will give speeches during the session. The final leg of the Treasury’s monthly refunding, the 30-year note auction, will have results announced at 12:00 PM.
GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The gold market starts the Thursday US trading session off on a slightly weaker footing despite somewhat supportive currency market action. Apparently residual concern of slowing in the US economy has lost its capacity to foster safe haven buying of gold, or perhaps the magnitude of the slowing fears in the US aren’t higher enough to prompt fresh buying action. Some players think the impending ECB rate decision has spooked some longs to the sidelines, while others think that the ECB won’t be able to justify a hike in this meeting, especially given the damage to sentiment caused by the most recent round of Greek debt troubles. Some traders think that gold is deriving some support from the tensions in the most recent OPEC meeting, where the cartel was clearly divided between raising production and holding production steady. Those OPEC members against raising production levels suggested that they were concerned about overheating in the Chinese economy, especially if energy prices were reduced in the wake of a higher output move. In fact, the main dispute inside OPEC was on the outlook for the global economy and that could indirectly provide some support to gold prices ahead. In looking ahead, the gold market will see a couple US Fed speeches today, with the Fed’s Plosser already weighing in with a partially dovish statement overnight. With the Fed Beige book, US data and recent Fed statements mostly leaning toward more slowing in the US, it is possible that some gold bulls are becoming hopeful of a delay in the end of QE2 or some other gold supportive stance from the US Fed. Comex Gold Stocks were unchanged at 11.214 million ounces.
SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: Somewhat surprisingly the silver market is showing some minor early gains today and that could be a sign that silver is starting to sense a softening of the US Fed tone. Clearly silver would be undermined in the event the ECB raises interest rates this morning but that isn’t a widely anticipated development. Seeing silver rally and gold decline today could also suggest that macro economic uncertainty isn’t high enough to support gold and that type of action could also suggest that silver is indeed hopeful of a delay in the end of US QE2. Some traders are suggesting that silver is coiling for some type of key decision ahead and therefore the last month’s high and low prices could be seen as critical technical points directly ahead. Comex Silver Stocks were 101.015 million ounces down 7,683 ounces. Silver stocks have declined 12 of the last 20 days.
PLATINUM: The platinum market was showing some minor weakness in the early Thursday US trade, despite an initial attempt to rally in the silver market. However, weakness in copper and energy prices and a lack of direction in world equity markets seems to have left the bear camp with a slight edge. Platinum and other physical commodity markets are probably fretting the ECB rate decision this morning, even though US central bank comments recently have leaned more toward an extension of easing. While platinum recently saw favorable comments toward Ford motor company shares, the tone of the Fed Beige book yesterday would seem to be somewhat restraining of platinum and other physical commodity prices. Platinum has also shown some coiling action for the month of June and that could mean that the trade is waiting for a clearer track on the US economy before committing to a fresh trend. Up trend channel support in the July platinum market is seen at $1,818.80 today and that level rises to $1,825.20 on Friday.
Tags: Gold, Metals, Platinum, Silver
About Dave Hightower