Metals: June Gold Highest Since May 4th; Silver Higher

Metals: June Gold Highest Since May 4th; Silver Higher

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Global equity markets were generally higher during the overnight and early morning hours, with indications that US equity markets would open with sizable gains this morning. The US Dollar is generally weaker against most of the major currencies, although posting a strong gain versus the Yen. News reports indicate that Germany may drop their attempts to have Greece have an early rescheduling of their debt as a condition for any new aid package. A major credit rating agency put Japan on a sovereign debt watch for a possible ratings downgrade. Japanese Industrial Production during April was up 1.0%, lower than market forecasts. German Unemployment during May was 7.0%, in-line with expectations. Euro zone Inflation during May was up 2.7% year-on-year, lower than projections. Major US economic numbers this morning will include a private survey of US Home Prices at 8:00 AM, a private survey of Chicago area Purchasing Managers at 8:45 AM, and a private survey of US Consumer Confidence at 9:00 AM.

GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The gold market managed another new high for the move overnight, with the June gold contract reaching the highest level since May 4th in the early Tuesday US trade. Apparently a slightly improved outlook for Japanese manufacturing and decent Euro zone economic readings have provided a somewhat positive macro economic backdrop this morning, which might be accentuated by renewed strength in energy prices. With the Dollar also falling to the lowest level since May 6th, the gold market is probably benefiting from the overnight currency market action. Unfortunately, for the bull camp in gold, US gold prices this morning might be somewhat restrained by weakness in Indian gold prices overnight. Some traders are suggesting that the prospect of weak US scheduled numbers later this morning could kick up the currency related support for gold, but that line of reasoning would seem to conflict with the positive initial reaction in gold prices last night to the hope that some idled Japanese manufacturing was poised to get back on its feet. Comex Gold Stocks were 10.875 million ounces down 271,824. Comex Gold Stocks are at the lowest levels since 09/27/2010. Comex Gold stocks are at the lowest in the past 10 readings. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of May 24th for Gold showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 213,515 contracts, an increase of 18,535 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 259,797 contracts, an increase of 20,177 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 46,282 contracts, an increase of 1,641 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 259,797 contracts in gold. This represents an increase of 20,176 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

SILVER MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The silver market appears to be caught up in a positive early wave that has also served to lift gold, equities and energy prices. A weaker Dollar is also serving to lift silver prices, which are probably garnering some positive vibes from hopes of improved physical demand for some commodities in the face of more positive Japanese manufacturing talk overnight. Some players even think that gold and silver are deriving some lift from talk of a possible deal that would allow Greece to cut its value added tax, which in turn is thought to be a stimulus to that troubled economy. Comex Silver Stocks were 101.428 million ounces down 383,025. Stocks have declined 12 of the last 20 days. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of May 24th for Silver showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 24,246 contracts, an increase of 180 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 43,120 contracts, an increase of 883 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 18,875 contracts, an increase of 705 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 43,121 contracts. This represents an increase of 885 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

PLATINUM: The platinum market managed a distinct range up extension this morning and in the process the July contract reached the highest level since May 5th. Apparently the market is benefiting from hope that some Japanese manufacturing might be set to restart and that in turn is seen as a direct benefit to platinum demand expectations. Keep in mind, the platinum market has tracked tightly with global auto sector developments and therefore it is possible that some fresh buyers are stepping into platinum off hopes of increased physical demand ahead. There was a minor supply side setback overnight in platinum, but this morning’s attention seems to be fixated on the demand side of the equation. The Commitments of Traders Futures and Options report as of May 24th for Platinum showed Non-Commercial traders were net long 21,961 contracts, a decrease of 1,159 contracts. The Commercial traders were net short 25,095 contracts, a decrease of 1,264 contracts. The Non-reportable traders were net long 3,134 contracts, a decrease of 104 contracts. Non-Commercial and Non-reportable combined traders held a net long position of 25,095 contracts. This represents a decrease of 1,263 contracts in the net long position held by these traders.

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