Stocks: Impressive Rebound Inspite of Macroeconomic Negatives

Stocks: Impressive Rebound Inspite of Macroeconomic Negatives

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Global equity markets spent most of the overnight and early morning hours under pressure, as concerns mounted over the Greek debt situation and because of slowing US economic growth. The Japanese Nikkei fell to its lowest level in two months overnight and the Chinese Shanghai index fell to its lowest level since late-January. Global equity markets seem to be factoring in a series of negative fundamentals, including Chinese tightening pressures, the end of the Fed’s QE2 program in June and a lack of fresh earnings news. However, European shares turned into positive territory during the early morning hours, helped by bargain hunting on shares beaten down due to the regions debt situation. Meanwhile, the focus in the US turns to this morning’s April Durable Goods report for another read on the health of the US economy. This follows a disappointing Richmond Fed survey yesterday, which contracted and followed a similar slow-growth theme suggested by last week’s Fed surveys in Philadelphia and Chicago.

S&P 500: During the last 4 sessions the June S&P 500 has made its lows of the session toward the end of the day and finished weak. That downside action in the wake of this morning’s early low and subsequent 8-point bounce might suggest the market could be ready to correct the recent slide. Concerns over slowing US economic growth and a sluggish labor market present the S&P 500 with a negative, but the June S&P 500 could be embarking on an upside attempt to correct the 43 point break from last week’s high. The US Treasury reduced their 96% stake in AIG by selling 200 million shares during yesterday’s offering. News that Chrysler paid back all of its bailout contributions from the US and Canada could be another sentiment booster for US equities. The bears maintain their edge but are being challenged. A little more upside this morning above the 1317.50 level would help tip the scale in favors of the bulls.

DOW: After an early evening sell-off to the lowest level since April 20th, the June E-mini Dow has put up a nice 100 point rally. It seems that the overnight trade was plagued by a number of negative headlines over a potential re-structuring of Greek debt, but there appeared to be a measure of bargain hunting buying as the index challenged downside support levels. It is also possible that a positive earnings report from Costco early this morning may have contributed to the attempt to recover. The short term trend in the June E-mini Dow continues to point down, but a rise back into the prior session’s range this morning could turn the tide in favor of the bulls. A further push this morning above the 12,365 level would open the door for potential move toward 12,450.

NASDAQ: The June NASDAQ traded sharply lower during the overnight session and broke down to a new 5-week low. Prices managed to recover from their worst levels this morning and could be in the process of forming an intermediate term low. Perhaps ideas that US lawmakers could be closer to raising the debt ceiling, after proposing 1-Trillion in budget cuts may be a factor helping to lift sentiment this morning. A move back above 2302.00 that holds today, could provide evidence of a larger upside advance to come. Upside resistance for the June NASDAQ stands at 2311.00 today, and then again up at 2325.00.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: In the face of a number of larger macroeconomic negatives, US equities have managed an impressive rebound from their worst levels. Short term oversold momentum indicators with this morning’s reversal action could be setting the stage for at least a multi-day bounce. Some analysts indicate that the major indices could be reaching fairly valued levels worthy of investment, and that could be a factor that provides an added lift on signs of a turn. Perhaps a favorable read on this morning’s April Durable Goods report could be the bull catalyst. Key upside level in the June S&P come in at 1317.50 and 12,365 in the June E-mini Dow.

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