Stocks: Looks Poised for Rally to Correct Recent Downdraft

Stocks: Looks Poised for Rally to Correct Recent Downdraft

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World equity markets are higher to start this morning and have edged back up toward Thursday’s highs. Ideas that Saudi Arabia could boost crude oil supplies to compensate for lost Libyan exports helped to soothe supply disruption fears and push crude oil prices lower late Thursday. The potential easing of supply disruptions fears could be a factor that takes a big unknown out of the market, which would help equities correct this week’s downdraft. Perhaps that uncertainty could be relieved further as the UN Security Council meets today to discuss sanctions against Libya. It seems that the equities want to rally but the uncertainty surrounding the Libyan conflict keeps near term optimism on a leash. Glimmers of bargain hunting have emerged at the same time the market discounts disappointing economic readings. Yesterday’s poor US New Home Sales figures failed to pressure the markets lower, and that might suggest that the market is short term oversold. In the meantime, some agencies within the US Government have begun to make plans ahead of a shut down as Congress hashes out details of the debt limit that is set to expire on March 4th. This morning’s US economic calendar includes a second look at 4th quarter GDP, which is expected to show marginal improvement from the previous read of 3.2% followed by a second look at February US Sentiment.

S&P 500: The March S&P 500 has closed lower during the previous three sessions but positive action early this morning hours bodes well for a bounce higher today. The market received a number of positive earnings results Thursday including: news that General Motors posted their first yearly profit since 2004 and results from Target that showed the company’s profit up over 10.0% on the quarter. Perhaps the positive results from target could indicate a similar reading from JC Penny’s when it reports its quarterly results prior to the Wall Street open. It is possible that financial stocks within the index garner support from positive action in AIG, which reported quarterly results indicating that the company earned over $11 billion in asset sales, which offset a $4 billion charge from its insurance unit. The bulls have the edge to start this morning, with upside potential to 1325.00.

DOW: The March E-Mini Dow appears short term oversold and trying to form a short term base to rebound from. Shares of index component Boeing are up over 4.0% in early morning trade after it was awarded a $30 billion contract from the US Air Force. The March E-mini Dow spent most the overnight session trading above Thursday’s mid-range level and appears to be gearing up for a bounce higher. The E-Mini Dow flirts with short term resistance at the 12,100 to 12,124 level with penetration above setting the stage for a push to 12,250.

NASDAQ: The March NASDAQ managed to rebound from trend line support at 2275.00 and appeared to lead the other major US indices higher yesterday afternoon. It is possible that the positive earnings and upside performance from Pricline.com yesterday added to the late day rally. Meanwhile, there appears to be some dissent among the members of Apple’s board over how to handle a successor to Steve Jobs handling, and that could become a factor that grabs the markets attention in the days ahead. The bull camp has the short term edge this morning, with near term targeting coming in at 2340.00.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: The markets look poised for a rally day today to correct this weeks downdraft. This leaves a short term positive outlook that could present a buying opportunity for short term traders, with upside targets coming in at 12,250 in the E-mini Dow and 1325.00 in the March S&P 500. Taking a more intermediate look after this week’s decline leaves the bear camp with an opportunity to sell a rebound higher in the major US indices to position for another downdraft to follow.

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