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The coffee market has now posted a new high for the move in 3 of the last 4 sessions but has continued to have trouble maintaining early strength throughout the balance of each session. Yesterday, after making a new 13-year high with another excursion above the $2.50 level, March coffee was unable to stay up in that area and gave back a portion of its early gains later in the session. A report that coffee exports from the Indonesian island of Sumatra during January were close to 3 times larger than last season’s levels may have eroded some of the coffee market’s recent strength. A large rise in quarterly Indian coffee exports was also thought to have some limited negative impact on prices as well. However, tight Asian coffee supplies during the Lunar New Year holiday have lent some support to the market. Reports that coffee exports from Guatemala during January were down more than 15% from last year’s level were seen as providing further strength but may have been something of a known factor due to news of export defaults in that nation late last month. A rebound in the Dollar after making a new low for the move applied some modest pressure to the coffee market, but it was unable to pull prices too far below the recent highs. ICE certified coffee stocks increased by 610 bags to 1.623 million with 1,600 bags pending review.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The market remains in a slow but steady uptrend, and while there seems to be a little better supply flow, there is still no significant technical sign of a near-term top. While the nearby futures are struggling to add to the recent gains that have pushed the market to its highest level since June 1997, traders should keep in mind that the June 1997 high was up at 275.00 and the May 1997 high was way up at 318.00.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: For now, May coffee support is at 245.90 with 261.35 as next resistance.
Coffee: Slow and Steady Uptrend; Highest Since June 1997
by Terry Roggensack on February 3, 2011
Below is a sample of The Hightower Report’s Daily Commentary. To get this comment, and our daily coverage of 15 additional markets and trade ideas, visit futures-research.com for your free 2 week trial!
The coffee market has now posted a new high for the move in 3 of the last 4 sessions but has continued to have trouble maintaining early strength throughout the balance of each session. Yesterday, after making a new 13-year high with another excursion above the $2.50 level, March coffee was unable to stay up in that area and gave back a portion of its early gains later in the session. A report that coffee exports from the Indonesian island of Sumatra during January were close to 3 times larger than last season’s levels may have eroded some of the coffee market’s recent strength. A large rise in quarterly Indian coffee exports was also thought to have some limited negative impact on prices as well. However, tight Asian coffee supplies during the Lunar New Year holiday have lent some support to the market. Reports that coffee exports from Guatemala during January were down more than 15% from last year’s level were seen as providing further strength but may have been something of a known factor due to news of export defaults in that nation late last month. A rebound in the Dollar after making a new low for the move applied some modest pressure to the coffee market, but it was unable to pull prices too far below the recent highs. ICE certified coffee stocks increased by 610 bags to 1.623 million with 1,600 bags pending review.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The market remains in a slow but steady uptrend, and while there seems to be a little better supply flow, there is still no significant technical sign of a near-term top. While the nearby futures are struggling to add to the recent gains that have pushed the market to its highest level since June 1997, traders should keep in mind that the June 1997 high was up at 275.00 and the May 1997 high was way up at 318.00.
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: For now, May coffee support is at 245.90 with 261.35 as next resistance.
Tags: Coffee, Softs
About Terry Roggensack