Copper Commentary – 2011.01.20

Copper Commentary – 2011.01.20

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The copper market is poised for a moderate slide directly ahead and the weakness looks to be off a combination of issues. It would seem like a broad based weakening of the economic outlook has settled into many markets and that might be the primary source of the selling pressure in copper. However, the market also saw evidence of rising Chinese copper production for the month of December and it also saw evidence that cumulative 2010 Chinese copper production rose by more than 12% over 2009. With the market also tossing around the idea that Chinese demand in the near term might soften, the bear camp would seem to have news from both the supply and demand side of the ledger. Even BHP showed an increase in 2nd quarter copper production and that clearly puts the supply side of the equation into the bears favor. Apparently the slide in the Dollar this week has been of little concern, perhaps because of weakness in US equities has tamped down the interest in all physical commodities. In short, the copper market will probably take a lot of direction from US scheduled data and from the action in the US equity markets today. LME Copper Stocks were 380,525 tons down 1,225 tons. LME Copper stocks have increased 14 of the last 20 days.

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